Para Venezuela, el FMI empeoró sus cifras de recesión en 2017 y 2018

El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) mantuvo el martes casi sin cambios sus previsiones para las economías de México y Brasil en 2017 y el próximo año pero recortó los cálculos de otros países, planteando un escenario más débil para la región, con una inflación mayor a 2.000 por ciento en Venezuela.

Las proyecciones actualizadas del Fondo, incorporadas en la nueva edición del reporte Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial, sólo rebajaron marginalmente -en 0,1 por ciento para este año y 2018- las estimaciones para toda América Latina y el Caribe que había dado el FMI en enero.

Sobre México, el organismo con sede en Washington reiteró su panorama cauto de enero, citando el “empañamiento de las perspectivas de inversión y consumo de cara a condiciones financieras menos halagüeñas y más incertidumbre en torno a las relaciones comerciales con Estados Unidos“.

El FMI señaló que esos factores contrarrestaban el impacto positivo de la mejora de las perspectivas de Estados Unidos y la depreciación del peso mexicano. Pero en una nota optimista, el reporte agregó que las reformas que impulsa el presidente Enrique Peña Nieto estimularían la expansión.

Para Brasil, el Fondo elevó levemente su proyección de crecimiento en 2018 a 1,7 por ciento, desde el 1,5 por ciento estimado hace tres meses. Como factores detrás del avance, citó “una menor incertidumbre política, la distensión de la política monetaria y el avance del programa de reforma” del presidente Michel Temer.

REDUCCIÓN DEL DÉFICIT FISCAL

El FMI instó a las autoridades brasileñas a “centrarse en reformas que aborden las obligaciones de gasto insostenibles, entre otros en el sistema de seguridad social, pero merece también la pena adoptar medidas que consigan una reducción del déficit fiscal más al principio del período“.

Sobre Argentina, el informe indicó que “la actividad tiene visos de expandirse (…) en 2,2 por ciento en 2017 gracias al aumento del consumo y la inversión pública, y en 2,3 por ciento en 2018 a medida que vayan recuperándose la inversión privada y las exportaciones”.

Sin embargo, el cálculo para el próximo año estuvo 0,5 puntos porcentuales por debajo del de enero, en reflejo de las dificultades que enfrenta el gobierno del presidente Mauricio Macri para vigorizar una economía aún lastrada por la inercia inflacionaria de la administración intervencionista anterior.

Para Venezuela, el FMI empeoró sus cifras de recesión en 2017 y 2018, estimando además una inflación de 720,5 por ciento este año y 2.068,5 por ciento el próximo. Esto, debido a “la monetización de los déficits fiscales, las amplias distorsiones económicas y las graves restricciones a las importaciones“.

Aparte, si bien el Fondo dijo que el aumento de los precios de las materias primas contribuiría a estimular el crecimiento en Chile y Colombia, sus proyecciones para ambas naciones y para Perú en 2017 y 2018 implicaron recortes totales de 0,8 puntos porcentuales, 0,8 puntos y 0,6 puntos, respectivamente.

Fuente: Reuters

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